Habrá caos: el colapso de las grandes petroleras y el nacimiento de un nuevo orden mundial
Los precios del barril han completamente cráteres. Con las energías alternativas en la subida, la geopolítica no pueden ser los mismos
Como 2015 llegaba a su fin, muchos en la industria energética mundial, orando que el precio del petróleo podría recuperarse del abismo, restaurando el mundo del petróleo céntrica del último medio siglo.
Toda la evidencia, sin embargo, apunta a una depresión continua del precio del petróleo en 2016 - uno que puede, de hecho, se extienden en la década de 2020 y más allá.
Dada la centralidad del petróleo (y los ingresos del petróleo) en la ecuación de poder global, este está obligado a traducir en una profunda reorganización en el orden político, con los estados productores de petróleo de Arabia Saudí a Rusia que pierden tanto protagonismo e influencia geopolítica.
Para poner las cosas en perspectiva, no fue hace tanto tiempo - en junio de 2014, para ser exactos - que el crudo Brent, de referencia mundial de petróleo, se vendíaa $ 115 por barril. Analistas de energía entonces generalmente asumen que el precio del petróleo se mantendría más de $ 100 profundamente en el futuro, y podría elevarse gradualmente a niveles aún más estratosféricos.
Tales predicciones inspiraron las empresas energéticas gigantes de invertir cientos de miles de millones de dólares en lo que entonces se denominó "las reservas noconvencionales": petróleo del Ártico, las arenas bituminosas de Canadá, las reservas marinas profundas y densas formaciones de esquisto.
Parecía obvio entonces que todo lo que los problemas con el, y el costo de extracción, tales reservas de energía, más pronto o más tarde se harían grandes ganancias. Poco importaba que el costo de la explotación de estas reservas podría llegar a $ 50 o más por barril.
A partir de este momento, sin embargo, el crudo Brent se vende a $ 33 por barril, un tercio de su precio de hace 18 meses y muy por debajo del precio de equilibrio para la mayoría no convencionales "petróleo difícil esfuerzos".
Peor aún, en un escenario recientemente ofrecida por la Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE), los precios podrían no volver alcanzar el rango de $ 50 a $ 60 hasta la década de 2020, o hacerlo de nuevo a $ 85 hasta 2040.
Piense en esto como el equivalente energético de un monstruo terremoto - una pricequake - que condenar no sólo a muchos proyectos de "petróleo difícil" ahora en marcha, pero algunos de los más extendido empresas (y los gobiernos) que los poseen.
La goleada actual en los precios del petróleo tiene implicaciones obvias para las firmas petroleras gigantes y todas las empresas auxiliares - proveedores de equipos, operadores de perforación aparejo, las compañías navieras, empresas de catering, etc. - que dependen de ellos para su existencia.
También amenaza un profundo cambio en las fortunas geopolíticas de los principales países productores de energía. Muchos de ellos, incluyendo a Nigeria, Arabia Saudita, Rusia y Venezuela, que ya están experimentando crisis económica y política como resultado.
(Piense en esto, por ejemplo, como una bendición para el grupo terrorista Boko Haram como Nigeria se estremece bajo el peso de esos caída de los precios). Los ya esos niveles de precios persisten, más devastadoras las consecuencias es probable que sean.
Una tormenta perfecta
En términos generales, los precios del petróleo suben cuando la economía global es robusto, la demanda mundial está aumentando, los proveedores están bombeando a niveles máximos, y poco almacenados o exceso de capacidad está en la mano.
Ellos tienden a caer cuando, como ahora, la economía global se ha estancado o deslizamiento, la demanda de energía es tibia, proveedores clave no logran frenar la producción en consonancia con la caída de la demanda, el aceite sobrante se acumula, y los suministros futuros aparecer aseguró.
Durante los años de go-go del auge de la vivienda, en la primera parte de este siglo, la economía mundial estaba en pleno apogeo, la demanda fue de hecho ha disparado, y muchos analistas predecían una "inminente pico" en la producción mundial, seguido de la escasez significativos.
No es sorprendente que los precios del crudo Brent subieron a niveles estratosféricos, alcanzando un récord de $ 143 por barril en julio de 2008. Con la quiebra de Lehman Brothers el 15 de septiembre de ese año y la crisis económica mundial que siguió, la demanda de petróleo se evapora, llevando los precios hacia abajo a $ 34, que Diciembre.
Con fábricas ociosas y millones desempleados, la mayoría de los analistas asumen que los precios se mantendrán bajos durante algún tiempo.
Así que imagínate la sorpresa en el negocio del petróleo, cuando, en octubre de 2009, el crudo Brent subió a $ 77 por barril. Apenas más de dos años después, en febrero de 2011, de nuevo se cruzó el umbral de $ 100, donde por lo general se mantuvo hasta junio de 2014.
Así que imagínate la sorpresa en el negocio del petróleo, cuando, en octubre de 2009, el crudo Brent subió a $ 77 por barril. Apenas más de dos años después, en febrero de 2011, de nuevo se cruzó el umbral de $ 100, donde por lo general se mantuvo hasta junio de 2014.
Varios factores explican esta recuperación de los precios, ninguno más importante que lo que estaba ocurriendo en China, donde las autoridades decidieron estimularla economía invirtiendo fuertemente en infraestructura, especialmente carreteras, puentes y carreteras.
Agregar a alza de la propiedad del automóvil entre las clases medias urbanas de ese país y el resultado fue un fuerte aumento de la demanda de energía.
De acuerdo con el gigante petrolero BP, entre 2008 y 2013, el consumo de petróleo en China saltó 35%, pasando de 8,0 millones a 10,8 millones de barriles por día.
Y China estaba liderando el camino. Países de rápido desarrollo como Brasil y la India hicieron lo mismo en un período en que la producción en muchos campos de petróleo existentes, convencionales había comenzado a declinar; por lo tanto, que se apresure en esas reservas "no convencionales".
Esto es más o menos donde estaban las cosas a principios de 2014, cuando el péndulo precio de repente comenzó balanceándose en la otra dirección, ya que la producción de los yacimientos no convencionales en los EE.UU. y Canadá comenzaron a hacer sentir su presencia en una gran forma.
La producción estadounidense de crudo nacional, que se había caído de 7,5 millones de barriles por día en enero de 1990 a apenas 5,5 millones de barriles en enero de 2010, se dirigió de repente al alza, alcanzando un impresionante 9,6 millones de barriles en julio de 2015. Prácticamente todo el aceite añadido vino de recién explotada formaciones de esquisto en Dakota del Norte y Texas.
Canadá experimentó un repunte agudo similar en la producción, como fuertes inversiones en arenas bituminosas comenzó a dar sus frutos. Según BP, la producción canadiense saltó de 3,2 millones de barriles por día en 2008 a 4,3 millones de barriles en 2014.
Y no se olvide que la producción también fue incrementando en, entre otros lugares, campos de aguas profundas en alta mar en el Océano Atlántico frente a tanto Brasil y África Occidental, que fueron en ese momento viene en la línea.
En ese mismo momento, para sorpresa de Irak desgarrado de la guerra muchos, logró levantar su producción en casi un millón de barriles por día.
Añadir todo y los números fueron asombrosos, pero la demanda ya no era mantener el ritmo. El paquete de estímulo chino había se agotó en gran medida y la demanda internacional de productos manufacturados de ese país fue disminuyendo, gracias al crecimiento económico tibia o inexistentes en los EE.UU., Europa y Japón.
De una tasa anual llamativos del 10% en los últimos 30 años, la tasa de crecimiento de China cayó en un solo dígito. Aunque se espera que la demanda de petróleo de China a seguir subiendo, no se prevé que crezca a algo como el ritmo de los últimos años.
Al mismo tiempo, el aumento de la eficiencia de combustible en los Estados Unidos, el mayor consumidor de petróleo más importantes del mundo, comenzó a tener un efecto en el panorama energético mundial.
En el apogeo de la crisis financiera del país, cuando el gobierno de Obama rescató a dos de General Motors y Chrysler, el presidente obligó a los principales fabricantes de automóviles de acuerdo a un conjunto difícil de normas de eficiencia de combustible ahora reduciendo notablemente la demanda de Estados Unidos por el petróleo.
En el apogeo de la crisis financiera del país, cuando el gobierno de Obama rescató a dos de General Motors y Chrysler, el presidente obligó a los principales fabricantes de automóviles de acuerdo a un conjunto difícil de normas de eficiencia de combustible ahora reduciendo notablemente la demanda de Estados Unidos por el petróleo.
Bajo un plan anunciado por la Casa Blanca en el 2012, el promedio de eficiencia de combustible de los automóviles fabricados en Estados Unidos y vehículos ligeros se elevará a 54,5 millas por galón para el año 2025, la reducción esperada del consumo de petróleo de Estados Unidos por 12 mil millones de barriles entre ahora y entonces.
A mediados de 2014, estos y otros factores se unieron para producir una tormenta perfecta de la subida de los precios.
En ese momento, muchos analistas creen que los sauditas y sus aliados en la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) podría, como en el pasado, responder por frenar la producción para impulsar los precios.
Sin embargo, el 27 de noviembre 2014 - Día de Acción de Gracias - La OPEP confundió esas expectativas, la votación para mantener las cuotas de producción de sus estados miembros. Al día siguiente, el precio del crudo se desplomó por $ 4 y el resto es historia.
Una perspectiva Dismal
A principios de 2015, muchos ejecutivos de compañías petroleras estaban expresando la esperanza de que estos fundamentos no tardarían en cambiar, los precios empujando hacia atrás de nuevo. Pero los últimos acontecimientos han demolido tales expectativas.
Aparte de la continua desaceleración económica en China y el aumento de la producción en América del Norte, el factor más importante en el panorama de aceite poco prometedor, que ahora se extiende con tristeza en 2016 y más allá, es la resistencia Arabia firme a las propuestas de reducir su producción o la OPEP .
El 4 de diciembre, por ejemplo, los miembros de la OPEP votaron una vez más para mantener las cuotas en sus niveles actuales y, en el proceso, impulsaron los precios hacia abajo otro 5%. En todo caso, los saudíes en realidad han aumentado su producción.
Muchas razones se han dado para la resistencia de los saudíes a los recortes de producción, incluyendo el deseo de castigar a Irán y Rusia por su apoyo al régimen de Assad en Siria.
En opinión de muchos analistas de la industria, los saudíes se ven como en mejor posición que sus rivales por la intemperie de un descenso de los precios a largo plazo debido a sus bajos costos de producción y su gran colchón de reservas de divisas.
La explicación más probable, sin embargo, y el avanzado por los propios saudíes es que están tratando de mantener un entorno de precios en la que los productores de Estados Unidos de esquisto y otros operadores dura petroleros serán expulsados del mercado.
"No hay duda de ello, la caída de los precios de los últimos meses ha disuadido a los inversores lejos de petróleo caro incluyendo US esquisto, en el fondo en alta mar, y aceites pesados," un funcionario saudí superior le dijo al Financial Times en la primavera pasada.
A pesar de los esfuerzos de los saudíes, los productores estadounidenses más grandes tienen, en su mayor parte, se ajusta al entorno de precios bajos, la reducción de costes y derramando operaciones no rentables, incluso la mayor cantidad de empresas más pequeñas han declarado en bancarrota.
Como resultado, la producción estadounidense de crudo, a unos 9,2 millones de barriles por día, es en realidad un poco más alto de lo que era hace un año.
Como resultado, la producción estadounidense de crudo, a unos 9,2 millones de barriles por día, es en realidad un poco más alto de lo que era hace un año.
Barrel prices have completely cratered. With alternative energies on the rise, geopolitics may never be the same
Michael Klare, TomDispatch.com
Topics: TomDispatch.com, Big Oil, crude oil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Editor's PicksThis piece originally appeared on TomDispatch.As 2015 drew to a close, many in the global energy industry were praying that the price of oil would bounce back from the abyss, restoring the petroleum-centric world of the past half-century. All evidence, however, points to a continuing depression in oil prices in 2016 — one that may, in fact, stretch into the 2020s and beyond. Given the centrality of oil (and oil revenues) in the global power equation, this is bound to translate into a profound shakeup in the political order, with petroleum-producing states from Saudi Arabia to Russia losing both prominence and geopolitical clout.To put things in perspective, it was not so long ago — in June 2014, to be exact — that Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, was selling at $115 per barrel. Energy analysts then generally assumed that the price of oil would remain well over $100 deep into the future, and might gradually rise to even more stratospheric levels. Such predictions inspired the giant energy companies to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in what were then termed “unconventional” reserves: Arctic oil, Canadian tar sands, deep offshore reserves, and dense shale formations. It seemed obvious then that whatever the problems with, and the cost of extracting, such energy reserves, sooner or later handsome profits would be made. It mattered little that the cost of exploiting such reserves might reach $50 or more a barrel.As of this moment, however, Brent crude is selling at $33 per barrel, one-third of its price 18 months ago and way below the break-even price for most unconventional “tough oil” endeavors. Worse yet, in one scenario recently offered by the International Energy Agency (IEA), prices might not again reachthe $50 to $60 range until the 2020s, or make it back to $85 until 2040. Think of this as the energy equivalent of a monster earthquake — a pricequake — that will doom not just many “tough oil” projects now underway but some of the over-extended companies (and governments) that own them.The current rout in oil prices has obvious implications for the giant oil firms and all the ancillary businesses — equipment suppliers, drill-rig operators, shipping companies, caterers, and so on — that depend on them for their existence. It also threatens a profound shift in the geopolitical fortunes of the major energy-producing countries. Many of them, including Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela, are already experiencing economic and political turmoil as a result. (Think of this, for instance, as a boon for the terrorist group Boko Haram as Nigeria shudders under the weight of those falling prices.) The longer such price levels persist, the more devastating the consequences are likely to be.A Perfect StormGenerally speaking, oil prices go up when the global economy is robust, world demand is rising, suppliers are pumping at maximum levels, and little stored or surplus capacity is on hand. They tend to fall when, as now, the global economy is stagnant or slipping, energy demand is tepid, key suppliers fail to rein in production in consonance with falling demand, surplus oil builds up, and future supplies appear assured.During the go-go years of the housing boom, in the early part of this century, the world economy was thriving, demand was indeed soaring, and many analysts were predicting an imminent “peak” in world production followed by significant scarcities. Not surprisingly, Brent prices rose to stratospheric levels, reaching a record $143 per barrel in July 2008. With the failure of Lehman Brothers on September 15th of that year and the ensuing global economic meltdown, demand for oil evaporated, driving prices down to $34 that December.With factories idle and millions unemployed, most analysts assumed that prices would remain low for some time to come. So imagine the surprise in the oil business when, in October 2009, Brent crude rose to $77 per barrel. Barely more than two years later, in February 2011, it again crossed the $100 threshold, where it generally remained until June 2014.Several factors account for this price recovery, none more important than what was happening in China, where the authorities decided to stimulate the economy by investing heavily in infrastructure, especially roads, bridges, and highways. Add in soaring automobile ownership among that country’s urban middle class and the result was a sharp increase in energy demand. According to oil giant BP, between 2008 and 2013, petroleum consumption in Chinaleaped 35%, from 8.0 million to 10.8 million barrels per day. And China was just leading the way. Rapidly developing countries like Brazil and India followed suit in a period when output at many existing, conventional oil fields had begun to decline; hence, that rush into those “unconventional” reserves.This is more or less where things stood in early 2014, when the price pendulum suddenly began swinging in the other direction, as production from unconventional fields in the U.S. and Canada began to make its presence felt in a big way. Domestic U.S. crude production, which had dropped from 7.5 million barrels per day in January 1990 to a mere 5.5 million barrels in January 2010, suddenly headed upwards, reaching a stunning 9.6 million barrels in July 2015. Virtually all the added oil came from newly exploited shale formations in North Dakota and Texas. Canada experienced a similar sharp uptick in production, as heavy investment in tar sands began to pay off. According to BP, Canadian output jumped from 3.2 million barrels per day in 2008 to 4.3 million barrels in 2014. And don’t forget that production was also ramping up in, among other places, deep-offshore fields in the Atlantic Ocean off both Brazil and West Africa, which were just then coming on line. At that very moment, to the surprise of many, war-torn Iraq succeeded in lifting its output by nearly one million barrels per day.Add it all up and the numbers were staggering, but demand was no longer keeping pace. The Chinese stimulus package had largely petered out and international demand for that country’s manufactured goods was slowing, thanks to tepid or nonexistent economic growth in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. From an eye-popping annual rate of 10% over the previous 30 years, China’s growth rate fell into the single digits. Though China’s oil demand is expected to keep rising, it is not projected to grow at anything like the pace of recent years.At the same time, increased fuel efficiency in the United States, the world’s leading oil consumer, began to have an effect on the global energy picture. At the height of the country’s financial crisis, when the Obama administration bailed out both General Motors and Chrysler, the president forced the major car manufacturers to agree to a tough set of fuel-efficiency standards now noticeably reducing America’s demand for petroleum. Under a plan announced by the White House in 2012, the average fuel efficiency of U.S.-manufactured cars and light vehicles will rise to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025, reducing expected U.S. oil consumption by 12 billion barrels between now and then.In mid-2014, these and other factors came together to produce a perfect stormof price suppression. At that time, many analysts believed that the Saudis and their allies in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would, as in the past, respond by reining in production to bolster prices. However, on November 27, 2014 — Thanksgiving Day — OPEC confounded those expectations, voting to maintain the output quotas of its member states. The next day, the price of crude plunged by $4 and the rest is history.A Dismal ProspectIn early 2015, many oil company executives were expressing the hope that these fundamentals would soon change, pushing prices back up again. But recent developments have demolished such expectations.Aside from the continuing economic slowdown in China and the surge of output in North America, the most significant factor in the unpromising oil outlook, which now extends bleakly into 2016 and beyond, is the steadfast Saudi resistance to any proposals to curtail their production or OPEC’s. On December 4th, for instance, OPEC members voted yet again to keep quotas at their current levels and, in the process, drove prices down another 5%. If anything, the Saudis have actually increased their output.Many reasons have been given for the Saudis’ resistance to production cutbacks, including a desire to punish Iran and Russia for their support of the Assad regime in Syria. In the view of many industry analysts, the Saudis see themselves as better positioned than their rivals for weathering a long-term price decline because of their lower costs of production and their large cushion of foreign reserves. The most likely explanation, though, and the one advanced by the Saudis themselves is that they are seeking to maintain a price environment in which U.S. shale producers and other tough-oil operators will be driven out of the market. “There is no doubt about it, the price fall of the last several months has deterred investors away from expensive oil including U.S. shale, deep offshore, and heavy oils,” a top Saudi official told the Financial Times last spring.Despite the Saudis’ best efforts, the larger U.S. producers have, for the most part, adjusted to the low-price environment, cutting costs and shedding unprofitable operations, even as many smaller firms have filed for bankruptcy. As a result, U.S. crude production, at about 9.2 million barrels per day, is actually slightly higher than it was a year ago.In other words, even at $33 a barrel, production continues to outpace global demand and there seems little likelihood of prices rising soon, especially since, among other things, both Iraq and Iran continue to increase their output. With the Islamic State slowly losing ground in Iraq and most major oil fields still in government hands, that country’s production is expected to continue its stellar growth. In fact, some analysts project that its output could triple during the coming decade from the present three million barrels per day level to as much as nine million barrels.For years, Iranian production has been hobbled by sanctions imposed by Washington and the European Union (E.U.), impeding both export transactions and the acquisition of advanced Western drilling technology. Now, thanks to its nuclear deal with Washington, those sanctions are being lifted, allowing it both to reenter the oil market and import needed technology. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Iranian output could rise by as much as 600,000 barrels per day in 2016 and by more in the years to follow.Only three developments could conceivably alter the present low-price environment for oil: a Middle Eastern war that took out one or more of the major energy suppliers; a Saudi decision to constrain production in order to boost prices; or an unexpected global surge in demand.The prospect of a new war between, say, Iran and Saudi Arabia — two powers at each other’s throats at this very moment — can never be ruled out, though neither side is believed to have the capacity or inclination to undertake such a risky move. A Saudi decision to constrain production is somewhat more likely sooner or later, given the precipitous decline in government revenues. However, the Saudis have repeatedly affirmed their determination to avoid such a move, as it would largely benefit the very producers — namely shale operators in the U.S. — they seek to eliminate.The likelihood of a sudden spike in demand appears unlikely indeed. Not only is economic activity still slowing in China and many other parts of the world, but there’s an extra wrinkle that should worry the Saudis at least as much as all that shale oil coming out of North America: oil itself is beginning to lose some of its appeal.While newly affluent consumers in China and India continue to buy oil-powered automobiles — albeit not at the breakneck pace once predicted — a growing number of consumers in the older industrial nations are exhibiting a preference for hybrid and all-electric cars, or for alternative means of transportation. Moreover, with concern over climate change growing globally, increasing numbers of young urban dwellers are choosing to subsist without cars altogether, relying instead on bikes and public transit. In addition, the use of renewable energy sources — sun, wind, and water power — is on the rise and will only grow more rapidly in this century.These trends have prompted some analysts to predict that global oil demand will soon peak and then be followed by a period of declining consumption. Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the energy and sustainability program at the University of California, Davis, suggests that growing urbanization combined with technological breakthroughs in renewables will dramatically reduce future demand for oil. “Increasingly, cities around the world are seeking smarter designs for transport systems as well as penalties and restrictions on car ownership. Already in the West, trendsetting millennials are urbanizing, eliminating the need for commuting and interest in individual car ownership,” she wrote in the Wall Street Journal last year.The Changing World Power EquationMany countries that get a significant share of their funds from oil and natural gas exports and that gained enormous influence as petroleum exporters are already experiencing a significant erosion in prominence. Their leaders, once bolstered by high oil revenues, which meant money to spread around and buy popularity domestically, are falling into disfavor.Nigeria’s government, for example, traditionally obtains 75% of its revenues from such sales; Russia’s, 50%; and Venezuela’s, 40%. With oil now at a third of the price of 18 months ago, state revenues in all three have plummeted, putting a crimp in their ability to undertake ambitious domestic and foreign initiatives.In Nigeria, diminished government spending combined with rampant corruption discredited the government of President Goodluck Jonathan and helped fuel a vicious insurgency by Boko Haram, prompting Nigerian voters to abandon him in the most recent election and install a former military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari, in his place. Since taking office, Buhari has pledged to crack down on corruption, crush Boko Haram, and — in a telling sign of the times — diversify the economy, lessening its reliance on oil.advertisementVenezuela has experienced a similar political shock thanks to depressed oil prices. When prices were high, President Hugo Chávez took revenues from the state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., and used them to build housing and provide other benefits for the country’s poor and working classes, winning vast popular support for his United Socialist Party. He also sought regional support by offering oil subsidies to friendly countries like Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. After he died in March 2013, his chosen successor, Nicolas Maduro, sought to perpetuate this strategy, but oil didn’t cooperate and, not surprisingly, public support for him and for Chávez’s party began to collapse. On December 6th, the center-right opposition swept to electoral victory, taking a majority of the seats in the National Assembly. It now seeks to dismantle Chávez’s “Bolivarian Revolution,” though Maduro’s supporters havepledged firm resistance to any such moves.The situation in Russia remains somewhat more fluid. President Vladimir Putin continues to enjoy widespread popular support and, from Ukraine to Syria, he has indeed been moving ambitiously on the international front. Still, falling oil prices combined with economic sanctions imposed by the E.U. and the U.S. have begun to cause some expressions of dissatisfaction, including a recent protest by long-distance truckers over increased highway tolls. Russia’s economy is expected to contract in a significant way in 2016, undermining the living standards of ordinary Russians and possibly sparking further anti-government protests. In fact, some analysts believe that Putin took the risky step of intervening in the Syrian conflict partly to deflect public attention from deteriorating economic conditions at home. He may also have done so to create a situation in which Russian help in achieving a negotiated resolution to the bitter, increasingly internationalized Syrian civil war could be traded for the lifting of sanctions over Ukraine. If so, this is a very dangerous game, and no one — least of all Putin — can be certain of the outcome.Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading oil exporter, has been similarly buffeted, but appears — for the time being, anyway — to be in a somewhat better position to weather the shock. When oil prices were high, the Saudis socked away a massive trove of foreign reserves, estimated at three-quarters of a trillion dollars. Now that prices have fallen, they are drawing on those reserves to sustain generous social spending meant to stave off unrest in the kingdom and to finance their ambitious intervention in Yemen’s civil war, which is already beginning to look like a Saudi Vietnam. Still, those reserves have fallen by some $90 billion since last year and the government is already announcing cutbacks in public spending, leading some observers to question how long the royal family can continue to buy off the discontent of the country’s growing populace. Even if the Saudis were to reverse course and limit the kingdom’s oil production to drive the price of oil back up, it’s unlikely that their oil income would rise high enough to sustain all of their present lavish spending priorities.Other major oil-producing countries also face the prospect of political turmoil, including Algeria and Angola. The leaders of both countries had achieved the usual deceptive degree of stability in energy producing countries through the usual oil-financed government largesse. That is now coming to an end, which means that both countries could face internal challenges.And keep in mind that the tremors from the oil pricequake have undoubtedly yet to reach their full magnitude. Prices will, of course, rise someday. That’s inevitable, given the way investors are pulling the plug on energy projects globally. Still, on a planet heading for a green energy revolution, there’s no assurance that they will ever reach the $100-plus levels that were once taken for granted. Whatever happens to oil and the countries that produce it, the global political order that once rested on oil’s soaring price is doomed. While this may mean hardship for some, especially the citizens of export-dependent states like Russia and Venezuela, it could help smooth the transition to a world powered by renewable forms of energy.http://www.salon.com/2016/01/14/there_will_be_blood_big_oils_collapse_and_the_birth_of_a_new_world_order_partner/?source=newsletter
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